How to Get Back to a Balanced Housing Market

Developers are not building enough single-family homes to keep up with demand. The reason why? Cost. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner explains why new construction is so cost prohibitive and how to shift the trend.

 

First posted at Windermere.com

Posted on May 9, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Buying, Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

December 2017 Year-to-date stats ~ What’s happening in the Market

The year is over and 2017 has shown to be one of the best years in recent memory for equity gain while creating more and more competition due to dwindling availability of homes. Pricing has recently reached all time highs with the median prices doubling over the past 6 years. That being said we don’t see it changing anytime soon with Consumer and Builder confidence on an all-time high. Those looking to Sell in 2018 will need to position their homes in the best possible light to receive top dollar and Buyers will need to be truly prepared to Buy in order to be awarded a New home in 2018!

OTHER DECEMBER MONTHLY TALKING POINTS
Eastside (based on Residential and Condominium report):
. Home prices nearly double in six years going from $407,000 in December 2011 to $810,000 in December 2017.
. The number of homes sold in December is virtually unchanged from a year ago (538 vs 541) even though there are 22% fewer houses for sale (451 vs 530).

It feels like 2018 will be similar to the past few years. A total frenzy until summer and then a flattening in price for the second half of the year. Interesting consistency in the past three years:

1. Big jump in median closed price in December.
2. By April or May the closed Median Price has reached the level it will remain close to, until the big jump in December

Posted on January 11, 2018 at 10:05 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , ,

LOCAL MARKET UPDATE

It looks like we’re skipping the normal holiday slowdown this season, with brokers reporting crowded open houses and competitive bidding in many areas. However, since sellers who list their homes at this time of the year are usually motivated to move soon, the holidays are still a good time to buy. Some of the best pricing is historically found between December and February.

If you’d like information with a full report on your specific neighborhood, give me a call and I’ll be happy to send you a report.

Eastside

Click image to view full report.

The rate of appreciation for homes on the Eastside continues to be as robust – or more so – as in Seattle. Both local and international buyers attribute the appeal of the area to larger lot sizes, newer construction, and highly-rated school districts. Inventory here is extremely low, and homes are selling quickly. The median price for a single-family home on the Eastside reached $851,000 in November, a 12 percent increase over the same time last year.

King County

Click image to view full report.

The number of new listings in King County is down 19 percent as compared to a year ago. With demand still strong, the median home price in King County rose 15 percent over last year to $630,750. Condo inventory, long an option for more affordable housing, is at a record low as developers opt for building apartments to avoid the legal and financial risks that come with building condos.

Seattle

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Seattle is one of the fastest growing American cities, and demand doesn’t look to be slowing any time soon. Combine that with a very limited supply and it’s no surprise that for over a year home prices here have been rising faster than anywhere in the country. Last month, the median price for a single-family home in Seattle was $741,000, soaring 21 percent from the previous year.

Snohomish County

Click image to view full report.

Buyers priced out of the King County market are taking this advice: drive until you qualify. Many are ending up buying in Snohomish County. The number of homes for sale was down more than 24 percent here in November and there is currently less than one month of inventory available. The median price of a single-family home was $445,000, up 11 percent year-over-year.

 

Originally posted on windermereeastside.com

Posted on December 14, 2017 at 6:47 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News

Market Stats Update from KeepingCurrentMatters.com

In the next few posts, I’ll be sharing with you the details of the real estate forecast from the economic expert KeepingCurrentMatters.com. In their yearly reports, they answer the most important questions that concern real estate buyers, homeowners, and agents.

Here is actual and forecasted statistics for a change in price around the US on the slides below.

“There is no direct or indirect sign of any kind of bubble. Steady as she goes, prices continue to rise, sales roughly flat.” (We talked about already.) “Overall this market is at an almost boring place.” Not that, you know, irrational exuberance that we had in 2006 and 2007.

Christopher Thornberg, a partner at Beacon Economics

Posted on December 6, 2017 at 8:44 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats

Market Snapshot Infographic

Statistics for October 2017

October 2017 Market Snapshot Infographic

Copyright © 2017 Northwest Multiple Listing Service – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Posted on November 9, 2017 at 11:47 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News

Greater Seattle Area Real Estate Market – 3rd Quarter 2017

The Gardner Report – Third Quarter 2017

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 79,600 new jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive growth rate of 2.4%, and well above the national growth rate of 1.2%. However, as we anticipated in last quarter’s report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in the growth rate as the state grows closer to full employment. Growth has been broad-based, with expansion in all major job sectors other than Aerospace (a function of a slowdown at Boeing). Given the current rate of expansion, I am raising my employment forecast and now predict that Washington will add 81,000 new jobs in 2017.

Given the robust job market, it is unsurprising that the state unemployment rate continues to fall. The current unemployment rate in Washington State is 4.6% and we are essentially at full employment. Additionally, all counties contained within this report reported either a drop or stability in their unemployment rate from a year ago. I maintain my belief that the Washington State economy will continue to outperform the U.S. as a whole. Given such a strong expansion, we should also expect solid income growth across Western Washington.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 25,312 home sales during the third quarter of 2017. This is an increase of 3.6% over the same period in 2016.
  • Clallam County maintains its number one position for sales growth over the past 12 months. Only four other counties saw double-digit gains in sales. This demonstrates continuing issues with the low supply of listings. There were modest declines in sales activity in six counties.
  • The market remains remarkably tight with listing inventory down by 14.2% when compared to the third quarter of 2016. But inventory is up a significant 32% compared to the second quarter of this year. Pending sales rose by 5.2% over the same quarter a year ago, which suggests that closings in Q4 will still be robust.
  • The key takeaway from this data is that inventory is still very low, and the situation is unlikely to improve through the balance of the year.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Given tight supply levels, it is unsurprising to see very solid price growth across the Western Washington counties. Year-over-year, average prices rose 12.3% to $474,184. This is 0.9% higher than seen in the second quarter of this year.
  • With demand far exceeding supply, price growth in Western Washington continues to trend well above the longterm average. As I do not expect to see the new home market expand at any significant pace, there will be continued pressure on the resale market, which will cause home prices to continue to rise at above-average rates.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was most pronounced in Grays Harbor County where sale prices were 20.1% higher than the third quarter of 2016. Nine additional counties experienced double-digit price growth.
  • Mortgage rates in the quarter continue to test the lows of 2017, and this is unlikely to change in the near-term. This will allow home prices to escalate further but I expect we will see rates start to rise fairly modestly in 2018, which could slow price growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the quarter dropped by eight days when compared to the same quarter of 2016.
  • King County continues to be the tightest market, with homes taking an average of 17 days to sell. Every county except San Juan saw the days on market drop from the same period a year ago.
  • This quarter, it took an average of 43 days to sell a home. This is down from the 51 days it took in the second quarter of 2016 and down by 8 days from the second quarter of this year.
  • At some point, inventory will start to grow and this will lead to an increase in the average time it takes to sell a house. However, I do not expect that to happen at any time soon. So we remain in a seller’s market.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the third quarter of 2017, I have left the needle at the same point as the second quarter. Though price growth remains robust, sales activity has slowed very slightly and listings jumped relative to the second quarter. That said, the market is very strong and buyers will continue to find significant competition for accurately priced and well-located homes.

 

 

 

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 

Posted on November 2, 2017 at 4:06 pm
Bellevue Commons | Category: Market StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News | Tagged 
Posted on November 8, 2017 at 10:36 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,