How Will the Real Estate Market Respond to Rising Interest Rates?

Let Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner walk you through what to expect from the real estate market amidst rising interest rates.​

This post originally appeared on windermere-bellevue.com

Posted on August 8, 2018 at 4:27 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Buying, Market Stats, Real Estate News, Real Estate Tips, seattle, Uncategorized, windermere, Windermere Bellevue Commons News | Tagged homeless | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

How Facebook and Microsoft multi-million expansion projects are going to change Redmond?

Two IT giants are planning to expand their campuses in Redmond at the same time.

Facebook has spent $106 million on construction and development permits for Oculus offices in Redmond over the last three years. And in 2018 alone, Facebook spent $88.3 million on Oculus -related permits for as many as eight new offices in the area. BuildZoom’s analysis identifies five properties, in particular, all on Willow Road in Redmond, that span more than 90,000 square feet of lab and office space. Those locations are 10545 Willows Rd., 10785 Willows Rd., 9805 Willows Rd., 9845 Willows Rd. and 9461 Willow Road.

Microsoft will construct 18 new buildings on the campus over the next five to seven years,  which currently has 80. It will renovate several other buildings to give them a modern, open feel.

Posted on July 26, 2018 at 4:39 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News, seattle | Tagged , , , , ,

The Gardner Report – Second Quarter 2018

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions.

Economic Overview

The Washington State economy added 83,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is a slowdown from the last quarter, but employment growth remains well above the national rate of 1.6%. Employment gains continue to be robust in the private sector, which was up by 2.8%. The public sector (government) grew by a more modest 1.1%.

The strongest growth sectors were Retail Trade and Construction, which both rose by 4.8%. Significant growth was also seen in the Education & Health Services and Information sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively.

The State’s unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 4.8% a year ago. Washington State will continue adding jobs for the balance of the year and I anticipate total job growth for 2018 will be around 80,000, representing a total employment growth rate of 2.4%.

Home Sales Activity

  • There were 23,209 home sales during the second quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 2.3% compared to the same period a year ago.

  • Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the same period a year ago, with an increase of 12.6%. Jefferson County also saw significant gains in sales at 11.1%.

  • The number of homes for sale last quarter was down by a nominal 0.3% when compared to the second quarter of 2017, but up by 66% when compared to the first quarter of this year. Much has been mentioned regarding the growth in listings, but it was not region-wide. King County saw a massive 31.7% increase in inventory, though all but three of the other counties covered in this report saw the number of listings drop compared to a year ago.

  • The takeaway from this data is that while some counties are seeing growth in listings — which will translate into sales down the road — the market is still out of balance.

Home Prices

  • Home prices continue to trend higher across Western Washington, but the pace of growth has started to slow. This should please would-be buyers. The spring market came late but inventory growth in the expensive King County market will give buyers more choices and likely lead to a slowing down of price growth as bidding wars continue to taper.

  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Mason County, which was up 17.4%. Eleven other counties experienced double-digit price growth.

  • Mortgage rates, which had been rising significantly since the start of the year, have levelled off over the past month. I believe rising rates are likely the reason that inventory levels are rising, as would-be sellers believe that this could be the right time to cash out. That said, the slowing in rate increases has led buyers to believe that rates will not jump soon, which gives them a little more breathing room. I do not expect to see any possible slowdown in demand until mortgage rates breach the 5% mark.

Days on Market

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days compared to the same quarter of 2017.

  • King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 13 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Clallam saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.

  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.

  • Although we did see some inventory increases when compared to the first quarter of the year, we are essentially at the same level of homes on the market as a year ago. The market has yet to reach equilibrium and I certainly do not expect to reach that point until sometime in 2019.

Conclusions

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers, but it remains firmly a seller’s market. This shift is a function of price growth tapering very slightly, as well as the expectation that we should see more homes come on the market as we move through the balance of the year.

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 

 

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Posted on July 25, 2018 at 9:27 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Update, Market Stats, Real Estate News, windermere, Windermere Bellevue Commons News | Tagged homeless | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Eastside Statistics Slideshow Template – July 2018

Posted on July 18, 2018 at 8:33 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Buying, Market Stats, Real Estate News, seattle | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

What’s Happening in the Market in May 2018?

Here are the Current stats via “What’s Happening in the Market” for the month of May 2018 for Eastside (based on Residential and Condominium report):

  • Is the market shifting? It is too early to call and the real estate statistics show demand still far exceeding supply, however still low, there has been a significant increase in inventory.
  • Number of properties for sale is increasing:

o             1,230 active properties for sale is the highest number in the past 20 months or since August 2016.

o             Active inventory is up 350 properties or 40% compared to a year ago (May 2018 = 1,230 vs May 2017 = 880)

  • Statistics indicating more demand than supply:

o             Less than one month’s supply of inventory.

             0.9 May 2018 vs 0.6 May 2017 vs 0.8 May 2016 vs 1.1 May 2015

o             Sales prices on closed May sales are up 14% to $859,950 vs $753,750 May 2017.

o             58% of houses sold over list price compared to 62% in April 2018 and 61% in May 2017

The increased inventory means Sellers and listing brokers will need to consider active competition.  Condition, marketing and pricing will be more important with rising inventory.

April-2018-YTD-Residential-Stats.jpg

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 5:17 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News, seattle | Tagged , , , , ,

King & Snohomish County Market Stats – April 2018

April 2018 active inventory rose 25% from March 31 2018 and 17% from April 2017.

Historically listings taken and active listings at the end of the month grow from April through July. In addition the majority of the year’s appreciation occurs in the first six months.

What does this mean:

  • Buyers can be a little more picky, more listings are coming, but they still are going to have to be aggressive with their offers
  • 62% sold for over list price and 83.4% sold in less than 15 days. However these are the properties that sold.
  • April 2018 active inventory rose 25% from March 31 2018 and 17% from April 2017.
  • Sellers may want to be cautious about pushing their asking price.

First posted on windermere-bellevue.com.

Posted on June 13, 2018 at 4:42 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News, seattle | Tagged , ,

How to Get Back to a Balanced Housing Market

Developers are not building enough single-family homes to keep up with demand. The reason why? Cost. Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner explains why new construction is so cost prohibitive and how to shift the trend.

 

First posted at Windermere.com

Posted on May 9, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Buying, Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Study Shows “Millennials Deserve More Credit”

Study Shows "Millennials Deserve More Credit" | MyKCM

When it comes to talking about millennials, there are many stereotypes out there that have influenced the way the public feels about the generation. Whether it’s the assumption that millennials are irresponsible with money and would rather buy avocado toast than save for a down payment, or that millennials jump from job to job, the majority of these stereotypes paint the generation in a negative light.

A new study by Bank of America entitled Better Money Habits Millennial Report recently came to the defense of the generation when it reported that:

“Millennials deserve more credit – both from themselves and from others – for their mindfulness when it comes to money and their lives.”

Here are some key takeaways from the study proving that millennials deserve more credit for what they are already doing:

  • 63% are saving – (47% have $15,000 or more in savings)
  • 54% are budgeting – (73% who have a budget stick to it every month)
  • 57% have a savings goal – (67% who have a goal stick to it every month)
  • 46% have asked for a raise in the past 2 years – (80% who asked for a raise got one)
  • 59% feel financially secure – (16% have $100,000 or more in savings)

Many have wondered if millennials even want to own their own homes or if they would choose to rent instead. Well, not only do they want to own their own homes, but many already do and are looking to trade up! A recent study by realtor.com shows that 49% of Americans who plan to sell their home in the next 12 months are millennials!

Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s Chief Economist, gave some insight into why millennials are looking to sell,

“The housing shortage forced many first-time homebuyers to consider smaller homes and condos as a way to literally get their foot in the door. Our survey data reveals that we may see more of these homes hitting the market in the next year.”

Bottom Line

Not every millennial fits into the stereotypes that are so prominent in our society. Those who have risen above the stereotype are ready and willing to buy a home of their own, and many others already have!

First posted at www.mykcm.com.

Posted on January 31, 2018 at 9:19 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Home Buying | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

December 2017 Year-to-date stats ~ What’s happening in the Market

The year is over and 2017 has shown to be one of the best years in recent memory for equity gain while creating more and more competition due to dwindling availability of homes. Pricing has recently reached all time highs with the median prices doubling over the past 6 years. That being said we don’t see it changing anytime soon with Consumer and Builder confidence on an all-time high. Those looking to Sell in 2018 will need to position their homes in the best possible light to receive top dollar and Buyers will need to be truly prepared to Buy in order to be awarded a New home in 2018!

OTHER DECEMBER MONTHLY TALKING POINTS
Eastside (based on Residential and Condominium report):
. Home prices nearly double in six years going from $407,000 in December 2011 to $810,000 in December 2017.
. The number of homes sold in December is virtually unchanged from a year ago (538 vs 541) even though there are 22% fewer houses for sale (451 vs 530).

It feels like 2018 will be similar to the past few years. A total frenzy until summer and then a flattening in price for the second half of the year. Interesting consistency in the past three years:

1. Big jump in median closed price in December.
2. By April or May the closed Median Price has reached the level it will remain close to, until the big jump in December

Posted on January 11, 2018 at 10:05 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , ,

Greater Seattle Area Real Estate Market – 3rd Quarter 2017

The Gardner Report – Third Quarter 2017

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 79,600 new jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive growth rate of 2.4%, and well above the national growth rate of 1.2%. However, as we anticipated in last quarter’s report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in the growth rate as the state grows closer to full employment. Growth has been broad-based, with expansion in all major job sectors other than Aerospace (a function of a slowdown at Boeing). Given the current rate of expansion, I am raising my employment forecast and now predict that Washington will add 81,000 new jobs in 2017.

Given the robust job market, it is unsurprising that the state unemployment rate continues to fall. The current unemployment rate in Washington State is 4.6% and we are essentially at full employment. Additionally, all counties contained within this report reported either a drop or stability in their unemployment rate from a year ago. I maintain my belief that the Washington State economy will continue to outperform the U.S. as a whole. Given such a strong expansion, we should also expect solid income growth across Western Washington.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 25,312 home sales during the third quarter of 2017. This is an increase of 3.6% over the same period in 2016.
  • Clallam County maintains its number one position for sales growth over the past 12 months. Only four other counties saw double-digit gains in sales. This demonstrates continuing issues with the low supply of listings. There were modest declines in sales activity in six counties.
  • The market remains remarkably tight with listing inventory down by 14.2% when compared to the third quarter of 2016. But inventory is up a significant 32% compared to the second quarter of this year. Pending sales rose by 5.2% over the same quarter a year ago, which suggests that closings in Q4 will still be robust.
  • The key takeaway from this data is that inventory is still very low, and the situation is unlikely to improve through the balance of the year.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Given tight supply levels, it is unsurprising to see very solid price growth across the Western Washington counties. Year-over-year, average prices rose 12.3% to $474,184. This is 0.9% higher than seen in the second quarter of this year.
  • With demand far exceeding supply, price growth in Western Washington continues to trend well above the longterm average. As I do not expect to see the new home market expand at any significant pace, there will be continued pressure on the resale market, which will cause home prices to continue to rise at above-average rates.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was most pronounced in Grays Harbor County where sale prices were 20.1% higher than the third quarter of 2016. Nine additional counties experienced double-digit price growth.
  • Mortgage rates in the quarter continue to test the lows of 2017, and this is unlikely to change in the near-term. This will allow home prices to escalate further but I expect we will see rates start to rise fairly modestly in 2018, which could slow price growth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in the quarter dropped by eight days when compared to the same quarter of 2016.
  • King County continues to be the tightest market, with homes taking an average of 17 days to sell. Every county except San Juan saw the days on market drop from the same period a year ago.
  • This quarter, it took an average of 43 days to sell a home. This is down from the 51 days it took in the second quarter of 2016 and down by 8 days from the second quarter of this year.
  • At some point, inventory will start to grow and this will lead to an increase in the average time it takes to sell a house. However, I do not expect that to happen at any time soon. So we remain in a seller’s market.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the third quarter of 2017, I have left the needle at the same point as the second quarter. Though price growth remains robust, sales activity has slowed very slightly and listings jumped relative to the second quarter. That said, the market is very strong and buyers will continue to find significant competition for accurately priced and well-located homes.

 

 

 

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 

Posted on November 2, 2017 at 4:06 pm
Bellevue Commons | Category: Market StatsWindermere Bellevue Commons News | Tagged 
Posted on November 8, 2017 at 10:36 pm
Oleg Doukhnevitch | Category: Market Stats, Real Estate News | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,